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连续四季不涨反跌！英伟达今夜放榜该如何克服财报魔咒_我的网站

新警察故事

A | 英伟达在过去一年中极其亮眼的盈利表现，不仅无形中抬高了华尔街对它的期望，也拉高了所谓“业绩超预期”的门槛，这使得该股陷入了一个令许多投资者感到困扰的“魔咒”：每逢英伟达公布季报后，越来越难有正面的股价回应…… 这家总部位于加州圣克拉拉的芯片巨头，将于周三美股收盘后公布2027财年第二季业绩。如下图所示，在过去四个季度中，尽管其每股收益、营收以及未来业绩指引均达到或超越了市场预期，但其股价在财报发布次日，却无一例外地出现了下跌。

    Night view of Guangzhou's CBD in South China's Guangdong Province Photo: VCG
The monumental full length reportage Ballet of Commerce: The Epic of Guangdong's Foreign Trade by famous writer He Jianming is set to make its debut at the Southern China Book Fair from August 27 to 31 in Guangzhou, South China's Guangdong Province.
Published by the Guangdong Education Publishing House, the book is the first of its kind to offer a panoramic account of Guangdong's millennium of trade and will be presented as a special offering for 2026's APEC "China Year," Xu Xiaofeng, an editor with the publishing house, told the Global Times on Monday.
China will host the 33rd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen, Guangdong in November. It will be China's third time hosting the event, following Shanghai in 2001 and Beijing in 2014.
He, a former vice chairman of the China Writers Association and recipient of the Lifetime Achievement Award for Chinese Reportage Literature in 2023, told the Global Times on Monday that as the world watches the evolving trade relationship between China and the US, there is a growing need for a book that can help Western readers gain a deeper understanding of China's trading culture and how Chinese people have conducted business throughout history.
Guangdong marks the starting point of China's thousand-year maritime trade with the world. Through its foreign trade trajectory, the book reflects China's broader trade evolution, the enduring values of the Chinese spirit in the modern era, and the distinctive civilizational traits that have shaped China's rise, He noted.
Guangdong is both the birthplace of the ancient Maritime Silk Road and a pioneer of China's reform and opening-up. As a vital artery of commercial exchange between China and the rest of the world, the Maritime Silk Road has witnessed the evolution and transformation of the Chinese economy over the centuries.
During the Sui (581-618) and Tang (618-907) dynasties, silk was among the main goods transported along the route, earning it the name "Silk Road." During the Song (960-1279) and Yuan (1279-1368) dynasties, porcelain became a major export commodity, leading the route to be known as the "Porcelain Road." By the Ming (1368-1644) and Qing (1644-1911) dynasties, tea had emerged as a sought-after Chinese export in Europe, giving rise to yet another name - the "Tea Road," according to a report by the Counselor's Office of the Guangdong Provincial People's Government.
    He Jianming talks about his new book on August 10. Photo: Wu Jie/GT
Mutual benefit
Guangdong, China's largest foreign trade province, accounts for about one-fifth of the country's total trade and imports. As a major manufacturing hub with deep and extensive industrial chains, it creates significant demand for production factors, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
In the first half of this year, Guangdong's foreign trade reached 5.49 trillion yuan ($810 billion), surpassing the 5-trillion-yuan mark for the first time in the same period on record. The figure represented a year-on-year increase of 20.8 percent and accounted for 21.6 percent of China's total foreign trade. The province contributed an additional 944.71 billion yuan in trade volume, accounting for 25.6 percent of the country's foreign trade growth, according to official statistics released in July.
Having interviewed over 100 enterprises and institutions, He said that the book revisits the enduring legacy of the Maritime Silk Road, highlighting the exchanges between China and the West and the fusion of diverse civilizations.
"At the heart of Chinese business culture is the belief that 'harmony is the most valuable.' Rooted in traditional Chinese culture, this philosophy emphasizes cooperation and mutual benefit. Rather than viewing strength as a means to overpower others, Chinese merchants have traditionally embraced the idea that prosperity should be shared. When one grows stronger, others can benefit and achieve success together. This aspect of Chinese commercial culture remains unfamiliar to many in the Western world," said the 70-year-old writer.
Wang Yuanlin, a professor at the School of Humanities Guangzhou University, told the Nanfang Plus (a Guangdong-based news platform) that mutually beneficial and fair foreign trade policies, together with Guangdong merchants' long-standing tradition of integrity and win-win cooperation, have been key factors behind the province's enduring success in foreign trade.
    Ballet of Commerce: The Epic of Guangdong's Foreign Trade by He Jianming Photo: Courtesy of Xu Xiaofeng
Elegant business
The author said that the choice of "ballet" in the book's title reflects the idea that Chinese business practices have developed into an art form - one characterized by balance and elegance.
"I want the Western world to understand that when the Industrial Revolution was just beginning and the Renaissance was sweeping across Europe, Chinese people had already mastered the art of commerce," He said.
Through conversations with entrepreneurs ranging from grassroots business founders to prominent corporate leaders such as Dong Mingzhu, chairperson of Gree Electric Appliances, He chronicles Guangdong's transformation from a millennia-old trading hub into a global industrial powerhouse.
"Just imagine: Employees at a private company can step into a space capsule after lunch and take a nap in their own private sleeping quarters. With a company like that, how could it not succeed?" he said.
From the exchange of handcrafted goods in the agricultural era to today's trade in high-tech products such as semiconductors and drones, Chinese people have developed a business culture centered on the principle that "harmony is most valuable" over thousands of years of commercial exchange.
This cultural tradition has become a key in driving the continued growth of trade in Guangdong and across China, He added.
。          甚至在英伟达财报发布三周之后，其股价往往都无法走出泥潭。         据Bespoke Data数据显示，过去一年间，除了去年第二季度仅达到指引预期外，英伟达的所有主要业绩指标其实均超出了市场预期。然而，其股价在财报发布翌日却仍遭到投资者抛售。    “当我考虑英伟达的业绩指引时，我也会考虑到这样一个事实：过去大约三年里，他们一直都在超预期……因此，无论他们给出怎样的指引，市场在心理上都已经默认其最终表现会比指引更进一步，”韦德布什证券分析师Matthew Bryson周一表示。    而眼下尤为关键的是，整场人工智能基础设施建设的沉重押注，如今几乎全系于英伟达一身——该公司不仅被视作无可替代的主导性硬件供应商，甚至还扮演着行业“出资人”的角色。

B | 问题在于，英伟达在财报日究竟能做些什么来真正打动投资者？ 独挑大梁 据FactSet数据显示，华尔街目前预计英伟达第二财季每股收益为2.09美元，第二财季营收为922亿美元。Cantor Fitzgerald在周六的一份报告中则强调，市场对英伟达第三财季营收的共识预期已达1037亿美元。分析人士表示，在市场预期早已高度透支的情况下，英伟达或许只有再次交出超越极限的答卷，才能赢得资本市场的掌声。

C | Rosenblatt Securities分析师Kevin Cassidy周一表示：“如果第三财季的营收指引能够突破1050亿美元，对市场而言将是个极大的惊喜；而一旦达到1100亿美元，那就是绝对爆炸性的表现了。

D | ” 此外，相比于将利润持续砸回AI建设的无限投入中，如果公司能释放出将更多盈利回馈给股东的信号，或许能从华尔街那里赢得更多的赞美。 Cassidy补充道：“如果财报数据未能惊艳全场，我们密切关注的另一个催化剂，将是他们是否会兑现承诺——将50%的自由现金流用于股票回购和提高分红。” 英伟达在6月举行年度股东大会时，公司创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋曾表示，基于对可持续市场增长和自由现金流生成能力的信心，我们计划在今年、明年以及更长期内，向股东返还50%或更多自由现金流，并随着时间推移继续提高股票回购和股息。 Cassidy将英伟达资本结构的潜在变化，比作苹果公司在其标志性产品iPhone增长开始放缓后所做的选择。他指出，“当大家对iPhone的增长数据逐渐脱敏后，苹果曾开启过大举回购，我认为英伟达接下来很可能会重演这一幕。” 此外，关于英伟达最新AI芯片平台Vera Rubin的消息也可能影响股价，尽管行业专家对其短期内的实际应用场景存有疑问，因为该平台的技术能力似乎远超当前可实现的商业需求。 “它的存在很酷，我也喜欢阅读这类新闻。

E | 但至于谁会使用它、用户是否愿意付费、以及愿意支付多少——所有这些问题目前都悬而未决，”德勤前首席云战略官David Linthicum表示。最后，无论英伟达股价在本次财报发布后如何演绎，这组最新业绩数据都将成为全场焦点，并实时折射出由AI浪潮所推动的全球股市的健康状况。正如Benchmark StoneX软件行业分析师Yi Fu Lee所言：“英伟达毫无疑问是整个AI行业的风向标。它也是我观察所有SaaS概念股的晴雨表，因为它的表现直接反映了半导体领域对GPU的真实需求是否依然强劲。”

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